It is a common belief that predicting NFL outcomes is one of the hardest things in the world to do with any consistent success. That is exactly why I was so shocked by the early results of my new algorithm. It is also precisely why I am not shocked to be coming back down to earth. Another 3-2 performance in Week 12 has brought the season total to 21-11, which is not bad at all, but average for my high standards. I will say in my defense though, I have yet to be below .500 in any week. If you have been listening to my advice you are still up each week, and even better, all season. And quite handsomely even. With Thanksgiving offering three contests, I decided to break this week’s picks into two posts. On Friday I will offer five games for the weekend slate, but today is a special edition Thanksgiving treat. Hope it helps your wallets. More importantly, hope you and your loved ones enjoy a very happy turkey day! But first…
The very first podcast I hosted was in the pre-season, and it was a debate on the value of the Rookie Wide Receivers in 2014. It was based off the article I wrote, ‘A Bakers Dozen,’ and I was joined by Ryan Berger (@TheFFGhost) and Jeff Beran (@FFJeffB). Both Ryan and Jeff write for DynastyLeagueFootball.com, DLF for short, and are considered to be Dynasty League experts. At the very least they are Dynasty savvy. I kid often with them, as both are two of my better comrades in the industry. This week I was joined by both again to revisit the discussion we had earlier in the year. With so many rookie WRs living up to, and beyond expectations, the topic only seemed right. Hope you enjoy, and Good luck this week, especially those trying to clinch a Playoff berth!
Season Record: 21-11
1.) Detroit Lions (-7) vs Chicago Bears, 12:30pm
Is there anything more synonymous with Thanksgiving Day football than the Motor City? Not only are the Lions a better team than the Bears, but how much does Chicago really have left in the tank? They have snuck by some equally poor teams to keep the record respectable, but anytime they have gone up against a Playoff contender, it has been a slaughter. Back to back drubbings in which they gave up 50+ points to the Patriots and Packers is exactly the kind of Bears team you should see this Thursday. The real question will be, who stands a better chance of remaining on their feet: you after your first round with the turkey, or Da Bears after a few quarters of the Lions? Buy a half point to get you under 7, but expect Detroit to win by at least one TD.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30pm
It is looking more than likely that both of these teams will make the Playoffs. However, this game will go a long way towards determining home field and a potential first round bye, and beginning the playoffs on the road. Oh yea, and these two teams hate each other as well! A Divisional slugfest on a national stage during your peak digestive couch time. Does it get any better than this?!? As many subplots as this may have, it really only comes down to the final score. I have a hard time believing this game will be anything but close, more than likely of the last minute field goal variety. At an even 3 you could buy a half point in either direction and go with the team you have a rooting interest in. Personally, I would much rather have the Eagles at 3.5 and know I have increased the odds in my favor significantly. The choice is yours.
3.) San Francisco 49ers (-1) vs Seattle Seahawks, 8:30pm
This should fall in the ‘Anything Can Happen on #TNF’ category. Meaning, anything out of the ordinary that can happen on Thursday Night, will. You don’t need to look any further than one week to realize this point. Did you really expect the Raiders to beat the Chiefs, much less manhandle them? The brand spanking new Levi’s Stadium has yet to provide much of a home field advantage. But, in what essentially amounts to a ‘pick em’, it is enough. In the Jim Harbaugh era, and beyond that even, these teams usually split the season series, with the home team being victorious. At 7-4 both teams have had equally disappointing seasons, yet are both still alive, and likely both will still make the playoffs. Again, I personally hate even lines and will always get it to a half. That being said, the 49ers should exude tremendous confidence only needing to win by 1, and at home. They should, but oh for those Thursday Nights.